Ramanan Laxminarayan, Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy.There will have to be a uniquely Indian response to COVID-19. "The experience from other countries has shown that if you lock down early, if you catch yourself early on the curve, there's a better chance of limiting the spread," he says. Shahid Jameel, an Indian virologist and head of the Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance, notes that measures taken in previous weeks-including halting international arrivals-had not slowed the rate of increase in cases. But most experts agree a national lockdown was needed. In an address last week, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said with one-quarter of its population falling below the poverty line, the country could not afford to a complete shutdown.ĭuggal and other advocates have criticized India's large-scale closure, saying area-specific lockdowns are more humane and practical in India. Pakistan, which has reported the region's largest number of cases, 1625, has also locked down only a few areas. Sri Lanka has more than 100 confirmed cases, but has shut down only eight of its 25 districts, citing the hardship to the poor. Bangladesh, which has a total of 49 reported infections, has locked down the country until 4 April. Other South Asian countries, too, are wrestling with difficult choices between disease control and the economy. Many observers say the aid is too little-less than 1% of India's gross domestic product-and that more is needed in the coming months.
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To prevent that, the Indian government announced a nearly $23 billion economic package on 26 March to support the poor, providing rations of grains and pulses, free gas cooking cylinders to 83 million families, and cash transfers of $6.65 a month to about 200 million women for the next 3 months. "We risk converting a health crisis into a socioeconomic crisis," says Ravi Duggal, a public health activist. And as transport options dried up, many families in New Delhi and other major cities simply began to walk to their distant villages, with little access to food. Migrant workers packed buses and trains home, potentially taking the virus into rural areas. Millions of Indians who depend on each day's wages for their daily meal were thrown out of work. Modi's lockdown had social and economic impacts even sharper than lockdowns in richer countries. "There will have to be a uniquely Indian response to COVID-19." are not available to India," says Laxminarayan, who is advising the Indian government. "Many of the advantages of the Chinese control and of having the health systems of Europe or the U.S. "India is probably the first large developing country and democracy into which this pandemic will arrive," says Ramanan Laxminarayan, founder and director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy. And the world's second most populous country has large numbers of poor living in crowded, unsanitary conditions and a weak public health infrastructure, with just 0.7 hospital beds per 1000 persons, compared with Italy's 3.4 and the United States's 2.9 India also has fewer than 50,000 ventilators. But without control measures, 300 million to 500 million Indians could be infected by the end of July and 30 million to 50 million could have severe disease, according to one model. Fewer than 600 cases had been confirmed at the time of Modi's announcement, although that number is widely believed to be an undercount. The move was partly a response to apocalyptic projections. One of this city's largest public grounds, it was often packed with cricket teams, joggers, school children, and elderly walkers-along with an entire informal economy of street vendors.Īll vanished after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the world's largest lockdown on 24 March, asking 1.3 billion Indians to stay home for 21 days to slow the spread of COVID-19. MUMBAI, INDIA-Until last week, Shivaji Park was brimming with people almost every night. Science' s COVID-19 reporting is supported by the Pulitzer Center.
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